浮动汇率持续期的国别差异:计量识别、经济解释与政策含义

Country-specific Differences in the Duration of Floating Exchange Rate Regime:Econometric Identifications,Economic Interpretations and Policy Implications

人民币汇率形成机制作为宏观经济政策框架的重要组成部分,对中国经济运行和宏观政策效果具有重要影响。本文基于155个经济体1980-2016年的面板数据,利用生存分析模型中非参数、半参数技术系统研究浮动汇率制度持续期在不同发展阶段经济体中的差异性。研究发现:非参数估计的主要结果表明浮动汇率制度在发达经济体的持续期最长,在发展中经济体的持续期居中,浮动汇率制度持续期在新兴经济体最短。发达经济体金融发展程度越高,其退出浮动汇率制度的风险越低。新兴经济体贸易集中度、经济发展程度和金融发展程度提高,其退出浮动汇率制度的风险均增加。发展中经济体估计结果表明其政治、经济和金融因素具有较大波动性,这些因素能通过不同渠道和机制对其汇率制度选择产生影响。

Based on the panel data of 155 economies from 1980 to 2016,this paper uses the non-parametric and semi-parametric techniques in the survival analysis model to systematically study the differences in the duration of the floating exchange rate regime in the economies of different development stages.The research finds:The main results of the non-parametric estimation find that the floating exchange rate regime has the longest duration in developed economies,the duration of the floating exchange rate regime is in the middle in developing economies,and the duration of floating exchange rate regime is the shortest in emerging economies.The higher the degree of financial development in developed economies,the lower the risk of exiting the floating exchange rate regime,which is consistent with the fact that floating exchange rates have a relatively long duration in developed economies.The higher the value of Emerging economies′trade concentration,economic development and financial development,the higher the risk of its exit from the floating exchange rate regime,which is consistent with the fact that floating exchange rate regime of emerging economies has the shortest duration.The estimation results of developing economies show that their political,economic,and financial factors have greater volatility.These factors can influence their choice of exchange rate regime through different channels and mechanisms.This article finally draws important conclusions,economics explanations and policy implications.