环境规制与制造业产能利用率——基于技术创新的调节效应分析

Environmental Regulation and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization——Moderating Effect Analysis Based on Technological Innovation

统筹推进环境质量持续改善与制造业产能利用率提高是中国经济步入新发展阶段的重要任务。本文从环境规制影响产能利用率的理论脉络出发,探索环境质量与制造业产能利用率提高双赢的可能性,采用2001-2017年制造业19个细分行业面板数据,构建随机森林和系统广义矩估计模型,检验环境规制、技术创新及二者交互项对制造业产能利用率的影响。结果表明,环境规制与制造业产能利用率之间存在显著的倒U型关系。整体而言,技术创新并未在环境规制提升制造业产能利用率中起到显著地调节效应,但具有明显的行业分化特征。其中,技术创新的正向调节效应在中高技术制造业和清洁型制造业更为显著。“十四五”时期应将完善环境规制体系、改进环境治理方式与制造业绿色技术创新有机结合,坚持创新驱动生产方式绿色转型,以高质量供给推动经济体系优化升级。

It is an important task for China′s economy as it enters a new stage of development to comprehensively promote the continuous improvement of environmental quality and increase the manufacturing capacity utilization.Based on the theoretical context that environmental regulations affect capacity utilization,this article aims to explore the possibility of a win-win situation in which environmental quality is improved while manufacturing capacity utilization is increased.Gathering the panel data of 19 manufacturing subsectors from 2001 to 2017,random forest and systematic generalized moment estimation model are adopted to study the effects of environmental regulation,technological innovation and their interaction on the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity.The results show that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and manufacturing capacity utilization.On the whole,technological innovation does not have a significant moderating effect on the improvement of manufacturing capacity utilization rate by environmental regulation,but there is a significant differentiative character.Among them,the positive moderating effect of technological innovation is more significant in medium and high technology manufacturing and clean manufacturing.Based on the theoretical deduction and empirical analysis,this article put forward that for the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the improvement of environmental regulation system and governance methods should be integrated appropriately with the green technological innovation of the manufacturing industry.It should be insisted to achieve the green transformation of production methods through innovation and the upgrading of the economic system through high-quality supply.