日本“对敌基地攻击能力”讨论新动向

New Trends of Japan’s Discussion on "Preemptive Attacking Capability against Enemy Bases"

2020年日本再度进行“对敌基地攻击能力”讨论。以安倍晋三内阁主张为代表的本轮讨论是对鸠山一郎内阁相关见解的断章取义,脱离了“专守防卫”方针,违背了《日本国宪法》并涉嫌违反国际法,意味着日本政界部分保守势力仍未摆脱战前实用主义思维方式。自民党各派、公明党、在野党、学界及舆论围绕“对敌基地攻击能力”的见解存在温差,成为影响其走向的因素。日本“对敌基地攻击能力”虽尚未被写入相关文件,但并不意味着已被放弃,未来其走向主要有三种可能。除从军事技术、安全政策、国际关系等角度对其持续关注之外,中国也需重视在法理方面的应对。

In 2020,Japan restarted the discussion on " preemptive attacking capability against enemy bases".In this round of discussions,the Abe cabinet attempted to distort the related interpretation made by the Hatoyama cabinet,deviating from the " exclusively defensive" policy and violating the Japanese Constitution and the international law,which indicates that some conservative forces in the Japanese political circle have not yet shed their pre-war pragmatic mindset.The difference in opinion among the liberal Democratic Party,the Komeito Party,the opposition parties,academia and the media over the preemptive attacking capability against enemy bases is a factor affecting the direction of the debate.Although the preemptive attacking capability against enemy bases has not been written into the relevant documents,it does not mean that it has been abandoned,and there are three main possibilities for its future.In addition to continuous attention from military technology,security policy and international relations,attention should also be paid to legal countermeasures.