预售期多阶段多层次高铁网络客流需求模型

Multi-stage and Multi-level Passenger Demand Model for High-speed Railway Network During Pre-sale Period

铁路运输企业编制运输计划时,不仅需要尽可能满足起讫点间的客流需求,同时要充分考虑客流需求在时间和空间上的波动性。根据问卷调查数据,采用分类统计和交叉分析的方法,分析不同出行目的、收入水平和出行距离的旅客在预售期内对购票时间阶段的偏好,用于研究高铁客流需求特征。根据多项式逼近拟合方法,基于客流需求特征,构造了预售期多阶段多层次高铁网络客流需求模型。以京沪高铁实际购票数据为例验证模型的有效性,结果表明提出的模型能够很好地模拟实际精细化的客流需求特征,应用该模型有助于提升高铁运输资源利用率、合理制定票价增加运营收益。

When making transportation operation plans, railway transport enterprises should not only meet passenger demand between origin stations and destination stations as far as possible, but also take full consideration of the fluctuation of passenger demand in time and space. According to the data of questionnaire survey, this paper adopts the classified statistics and cross analysis to study the ticket purchase time preferences of passengers with different travel purposes, travel distances and incomes during pre-sale period on China’s high-speed railway network. The preferences of ticket purchasing can characterize the passenger demand.Based on polynomial approximation fitting on passenger demand characteristics, the formulation model of multi-stage and multi-level passenger demand model on high-speed railway network under the preferences of ticket purchasing time stages during pre-sale period is proposed. Taking the actual ticket purchase data of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway line as an example, the validity of the model is examined. The results show that the proposed model can well simulate the actual elaborative passenger demand trends, which is helpful for high-speed railway transportation enterprises to make reasonable use of transportation resources and develop reasonable ticket prices to increase railway operational profit.