成都都市圈铁路建设策略探讨

Discussion on Railway Construction Strategy of Chengdu Metropolitan Area

为建设高质量、有效益、可持续的铁路项目,推动成德眉资同城化,提高成都都市圈经济发展速度,打造双核平衡的成渝地区双城经济圈,支撑国内大循环高速运转,本文首先参照国内铁路建成情况与相关规划,推测四川铁路的建设空间,其次用logit方法分析手机信令数据,再参照国内发达城市群发展规律用趋势外推法,分别预测成都都市圈的未来铁路客运规模,对比纠正相关投资主体的内部收益预测,确定四川铁路的建设空间与改善负债的可能,在此基础上对四川境内铁路建设投融资、选线决策、TOD开发、运营等阶段的问题提出解决策略或发展方向,为提高四川省铁路投资、决策、开发、运营水平建言献策。

The target is to build a high-quality, profitable and sustainable railway project, and promote the integration of Chengdu, Deyang, Meishan and Ziyang, thus developing a balanced economic circle of Chengdu and Chongqing as a pole of the domestic circulation. Firstly,we speculated the construction potential scale of Sichuan railway according to the existing quantity and planning policies. Secondly, This paper used ‘logit’method to predict the scale of railway passenger in Chengdu metropolitan area based on the mobile signaling data. And then, we used trend extrapolation method to predict once more with reference to the growth law in other developed urban agglomerations. As the result, the prediction of internal income of relevant investors was perfected. Based on this conclusion that Sichuan railway has great construction space and the possibility of improving the current situation of debt, the paper analyzed the existing problems of railway investment and financing, planning and decision-making, TOD development and operation in Sichuan Province. On the same time put forward several countermeasures, so as to optimize the quality of railway investment, construction and operation in Sichuan Province.