基于动态模拟视角与共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评价

Multi-scenario Evaluation of County-scale Development Potential based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Dynamic Simulation Approach

作为可持续发展的重要主题之一,科学评估县域可持续发展潜力是制定县域发展战略的基础。现有可持续发展潜力评估方法多是基于县域发展现状的多维度综合分析,在体现发展的动态性上仍存在不足。本文构建了面向联合国2030年可持续发展目标的县域可持续发展潜力指标体系,采用系统动力学和FLUS模型对发展潜力指标进行预测,提出了一种结合共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评估方法。本文以山东省招远市作为案例区,基于2009—2018年的社会经济以及土地利用数据,通过模拟2030年招远市基准情景、SSP1、SSP2、SSP3、SSP5共5种情景下的县域发展态势,对比评估了实验区可持续发展潜力的差异性。结果表明:(1)经济发展、居民福祉维度的多数指标在所有情景下均呈增长趋势,而生态维度指标则呈显著的下降趋势;(2)相比2018年,SSP1、SSP2情景下县域发展潜力均值分别提升了17.36%、9.80%,而在SSP3、SSP5情景下分别下降了0.50%、4.20%,可见,SSP1情景能够最大限度提升招远市发展可持续性,SSP5则将产生显著的负面影响;(3)招远市未来发展应持续优化SSP1路径,重点关注不同产业劳动力占比、人口老龄化、碳固持等滞后指标。本研究建立了2030可持续发展目标与县域发展潜力的映射关系,提供了一种面向未来的多情景县域发展潜力评价技术框架,预期为招远市未来发展政策制定与高质量发展转型提供科学依据。

As a key issue of sustainable development,scientific assessment of sustainable development potential at county scale provides a solid support for policy making of regional planning.The existing studies have mostly evaluated development potentials of counties using the aggregation of multi-dimensional indicators based on actual development conditions,but rarely focused on the evolution of development potentials in future.Here,we construct an indicator system for the evaluation of sustainable development potential at county scale based on the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),and project the changes in evaluation indicators based on the integration of System Dynamics model(SD)and Future Land Use Simulation model(FLUS).The Zhaoyuan City in Shandong Province,one of China’s top 100 economic counties and famous of its gold mining,was selected as a case study to explore the potential of its transition from the mining-dependent to the sustainable development mode.To examine the impacts of different development modes on sustainable development potentials of the study area,we designed five simulation scenarios based on multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs),i.e.,business-as-usual scenario,SSP1,SSP2,SSP3,and SSP5,and performed the evaluation under different pathways from a simulation perspective.The results show that:(1)A majority of indicators on economic and social dimensions are likely to be improved under all scenarios,while ecological indicators,e.g.carbon sequestration,forest,grass,water shape index,and number of forest,grass,and water patches,will be significantly declined;(2)The changing rate of development potentials during the period of 2018-2030 will be less than that from 2009 to 2018 due to the development transition from extensive to the high-quality mode;(3)Compared with the year of 2018,the development potential on average in 2030 under SSP1 and SSP2scenarios will be increased by 17.36%and 9.8%,respectively,while those under SSP3 and SSP5 will be decreased by 0.5%and 4.20%,respectively.The SSP1 can maximize the development sustainability of the study area,but SSP5 may exert significantly negative impact;(4)future development of Zhaoyuan City should focus on the promotion of SSP1 scenario and cope with backward indicators such as the labor force proportion in different industries,aging population,and carbon sequestration.Overall,we aim to clarify the mapping relationship between 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and development potentials at county scale and provide a comprehensive evaluation framework for development potentials under multiple simulation scenarios.Our work is expected to provide scientific guidance for development policy making and high-quality development transition of Zhaoyuan City.