西方国家移民的政治效应——一项基于演绎方法的分析

Political Effects of Immigration in the Western Countries——An Analysis Based on Deductive Method

20世纪后半叶以来,西方发达国家总体上转向了更加自由开放的移民政策。但这种转向带来了某些出乎意料的政治后果。这种移民政策的转向跟西方发达国家主流认知的改变有关,而他们的主流认知又基于跟移民问题有关的三个理论预设——个人主义方法论、西方文明同化论和政治秩序制度论。但问题是,这三个理论预设跟西方社会移民问题的真实情境有着较大的偏差。那么,到底是哪些因素决定了移民对一个国家的政治冲击呢?移民对一个国家的政治冲击可以由一个包括移民率、同化率、移民与主导族裔异质性程度、主导族裔出生率与移民群体出生率等关键参数在内的函数模型来衡量。由这一函数模型可以推导出,如果西方发达国家要降低移民带来的政治冲击,可能的政策选择包括降低移民率、提高同化率、控制异质性程度高的移民群体数量、鼓励主导族裔的出生率以及改变客观上鼓励少数族裔高出生率的做法。

Since the second half of the 20th century, western developed countries have generally turned to more liberal and open immigration policies. But this has brought some unexpected political consequences. The shift of immigration policy is related to the change of mainstream cognition in western developed countries, and their mainstream cognition is based on three theoretical preconditions related to immigration issues: methodological individualism, assimilation theory of western civilization, and political order theory based on political institutions. But the problem is that these three theoretical premises deviate greatly from the real situation of western social migration. Then, what factors determine the political impact of immigration on a country? It can be measured by a functional model including many key parameters. From this model, it can be deduced that if developed western countries were to reduce the political impact of immigration, possible policy options include reducing immigration rates, increasing assimilation rates, controlling immigrant groups with high levels of heterogeneity, encouraging birth rates of dominant ethnicities, and changing practices that objectively encourage high birth rates of minorities.