基于温度带分区的中国粮食生产格局与热量资源利用效率研究

Research on the grain production pattern and heat resource utilization efficiency based on temperature zone division in China

研究并揭示粮食生产格局及自然资源利用效率变化规律,对于合理利用资源、保障国家粮食安全和实现可持续发展具有重要意义。本文利用ArcGIS空间分析方法,基于1985—2015年中国县域粮食生产数据和全国683个气象站点数据,分析了基于温度带分区的中国粮食生产格局变化及热量资源利用特征。研究表明,在1985—2015年间,中国粮食总产的90%左右由中温带、暖温带、北亚热带和中亚热带生产,其占比分别为18.6%、25.6%、21.6%和25.9%。30年来一熟区的粮食产量比重增加了13.8%,而二熟区和三熟区分别下降了2.7%和11.2%。其中一熟区的中温带粮食产量占比增加了13.9%,播种面积和单产的同步增加是中温带粮食增产的驱动因素,而三熟区中亚热带的粮食生产占比下降了13.9%。30年来不同温度带≥10℃年积温不断增加,南方增温趋势较北方更明显,但是热量资源利用效率增幅低于北方,中国粮食生产格局变化与热量资源分布间存在“错位现象”。因此,在进行区域粮食生产布局优化和策略制定时,需要以区域自然资源特点为基础,分析粮食生产与资源自然匹配的协调性,从而提高中国粮食生产的资源利用效率。

It is of great significance to reveal the changes of grain production pattern and natural resource utilization efficiency for rational utilization of natural resources, security of national food security, and sustainable development. Base on the data of county-scale grain production and 683 meteorological stations from 1985 to 2015 in China, ArcGIS spatial analysis method was adopted to analyze the grain production pattern changes and heat resource utilization characteristics considered temperature zone division. Studies had shown that about 90% of Chinese total grain output was produced in mid temperate, warm temperate, northern subtropical, and mid subtropical zones from 1985 to 2015, accounting for 18.6%, 25.6%, 21.6%, and 25.9%, respectively. In the past 30 years, the proportion of grain production in the single cropping region had increased by 13.8%, while it had decreased by 2.7% and 11.2% in the double and triple cropping region, respectively. The proportion of grain production had increased by 13.9% in the mid temperate zone of the single cropping region which was drove by the advance of planted acreage and yield,while the proportion decreased by 13.9% in the subtropical zones of the triple-cropping system. Over the past 30 years, the annual accumulated temperature above 10℃ had continued to increase in different temperature zones, and that was more evident in southern region than northern region. However, the increased magnitude of heat utilization efficiency for grain production in southern temperature zones was lower than northern region. There was a “dislocation phenomenon” between the changes of Chinese grain production pattern and the distributions of heat resources. Therefore, it was necessary to consider the coordination of grain production and natural resources matching as well as the characteristics of resource utilization for improving resource utilization efficiency when optimizing the layout of regional grain production and formulating strategies in China.