国际视角下企业复苏发展面临的冲击、成本影响及应对

Cost Impact and Countermeasures of Enterprise Recovery and Development from an International Perspective

全面系统分析国际经济形势及其影响是有效应对多重风险挑战的重要前提。疫情暴发以来,世界经济复苏不确定不平衡因素显著增多,供给端的多重冲击、需求复苏仍显疲软、收益率波动、通胀压力持续上升等对我国经济稳定运行带来较大影响。疫情持续蔓延、全球运力结构性失衡以及美欧超常规财政货币政策等多重因素交织叠加,致使国际大宗商品供求失衡,价格维持高位;国际要素价格变化影响重点行业企业成本及利润,对上中下游企业成本及利润影响分化;国际物流成本持续高位,工业企业利润存在双重“挤出效应”;人工成本上升,对外向型企业产生不同程度的冲击;汇率波动对出口为主、进口量少的企业影响较大。本文建议,保持货币政策的独立性,延续“稳货币+结构性紧信用”格局;从宏观审慎角度降低潜在外溢冲击,巩固经济平稳发展预期;持续整合完善产业链,推进产业结构优化和转型升级;继续落实减税降费政策,持续降低融资成本,有效支持实体经济;搭建平台,推动运输方式有序接替衔接,引导行业降低物流成本;加大对外向型中小企业稳岗和数字化、智能化建设支持,缓解用工成本上涨压力;进一步推进人民币市场化改革,加强跨境资金流动管理。

A comprehensive and systematic analysis of the international economic situation and its impact is an important prerequisite for effectively responding to multiple risks and challenges.Since the outbreak of the epidemic,uncertainties and imbalances in global economic recovery have increased significantly.The multiple shocks on the supply side,the weak demand recovery,the fluctuation of yield and the rising inflationary pressure have had a great impact on the stable operation of China’s economy.The continuous spread of the epidemic,the structural imbalance of global transport capacity and the unconventional fiscal and monetary policies of the United States and Europe have resulted in the imbalance between the supply and demand of international bulk commodities and the maintenance of high prices;Changes in international factor prices affect the costs and profits of enterprises in key industries,and have a differentiated impact on the costs and profits of upstream,middle and downstream enterprises;International logistics costs remain high,and there is a double"crowding out effect"in the profits of industrial enterprises;The rise of labor costs will have varying degrees of impact on outward oriented enterprises;Exchange rate fluctuations have a great impact on enterprises that mainly export and import less.Therefore,this paper suggests that we should maintain the independence of monetary policy and continue the pattern of"stable currency+structural tight credit";Reduce the potential spillover impact from the perspective of macro prudence and consolidate the expectation of steady economic development;Continue to integrate and improve the industrial chain,and promote the optimization,transformation and upgrading of industrial structure;Continue to implement the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction,continue to reduce financing costs and effectively support the real economy;Build a platform to promote the orderly succession and connection of transportation modes and guide the industry to reduce logistics costs;Increase support for job stabilization and digital and intelligent construction of outward oriented small and medium-sized enterprises to alleviate the rising pressure of labor costs;Further promote the market-oriented reform of RMB and strengthen the management of cross-border capital flows.