货币政策规则论的发展及其对中国的启示

The Development of Monetary Policy Rule Theory and Its Implications for China

货币政策规则是要求中央银行在相对长期内按照某种一致的反应规则进行政策调整的货币政策调控机制。20世纪90年代兴起的货币政策规则理论是价格型货币政策理论的深化,货币政策规则论发展的里程碑是斯坦福大学教授约翰·泰勒于1993年提出的泰勒规则(Taylor rule)。虽然同时期也有其他形式的货币政策规则,如基于基础货币增长率的麦卡勒姆规则等,但是泰勒规则是货币政策规则论的代表性成果,不仅在宏观分析的理论框架中广泛使用,而且被许多中央银行作为货币政策调控的基本规则。本文以泰勒规则及其扩展形式作为主要脉络,对货币政策规则领域的文献进行梳理,讨论了相关理论发展对中国的启示。泰勒规则根据通货膨胀率和真实产出缺口对短期名义利率进行调整。文献对泰勒规则的拓展主要集中于目标变量下标的选取和利率平滑,前者衍生出了前瞻型、当期型和后顾型规则等形式,后者在规则方程右手侧引入了短期利率的滞后项。经研究表明,泰勒规则及其拓展形式能够较为准确地刻画以美联储为代表的多国央行的货币政策调控行为,同时在一定程度上描述中国人民银行的货币政策。我国的货币政策实践也可以借鉴泰勒型规则的框架,但是在目标变量的选取方面,有必要根据我国实际情况相应调整。

Monetary policy rule is a monetary policy regime that requires the central bank to adjust the policy according to a certain consistent reaction rule during a relatively long period.The theory of monetary policy rules,emerged in the 1990s,is the deepening of the price-based monetary policy theory.The milestone in the development of the theory of monetary policy rules is the Taylor rule proposed by Professor John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993.Although there are other forms of monetary policy rules in the same period,such as McCallum rule based on the growth rate of monetary base.However,Taylor rule is a representative achievement of monetary policy rule theory.It is not only widely used in the theoretical framework of macroeconomic analysis,but also used as the basic rule of monetary policy practice by many central banks.Taking Taylor rule and its extended forms as the main context,this paper reviews the literature in the field of monetary policy rules,and discusses its enlightenment to China.Taylor rule adjusts the shortterm nominal interest rate according to the inflation rate and the real output gap.The extension of Taylor rule in literature mainly focuses on the selection of target variable subscript and interest rate smoothing.The former derives the forms of forward-looking,current-and backward-looking rules,and the latter introduces the lag of short-term interest rate to the right-hand side of the policy rule.Empirical researches show that Taylor rule and its extended forms can accurately describe the conduct of monetary policy of worldwide central banks represented by the Federal Reserve,and describe the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China to a certain extent.The practice of monetary policy in China can also learn from the framework of Taylor rules,but it is necessary to adjust the target variables according to the actual situation of China.