国家审计对政府卫生支出的影响及异质性研究——基于贝叶斯分位数回归模型

Impact and Heterogeneity of National Audit on Government Health Expenditure——Based on Bayesian Quantile Regression Model

本文利用2007~2016年省级数据,基于贝叶斯分位数回归模型研究了国家审计对政府卫生支出的影响,及不同政府卫生支出水平下各影响因素的异质性效应。结果表明,国家审计对政府卫生支出的腐败行为具有显著的治理功能,国家审计的投入力度越大,其监督、预防、揭示和抵御功能发挥得越好,越有助于提高政府卫生支出水平。此外,不同的政府卫生支出水平,国家审计治理的影响程度具有明显异质性效应,且各影响因素的系数变化具有显著性差异。因此,为加强腐败治理促进政府卫生支出,不仅需要注重国家审计顶层设计的落地,加强政府多方部门合作推进协同审计,而且应根据具体的政府卫生支出水平做出相应的政策调整以避免地方“政策趋同”带来的不利。

This paper uses the 2007~2016 provincial~level data to explore the impact of national audit governance on government health expenditure and the heterogeneous effect of various influencing factors at different levels of government health expenditure via the Bayesian quantile regression.The results show that the national audit has a significant governance function with respect to corruption in government health expenditure.The greater the investment in national audit,the better its ability to monitor,prevent,reveal,and resist,and the more helpful it is to increase government health expenditure.Besides,under different levels of government health expenditures,the impact of national audit governance is heterogeneous.Therefore,to strengthen the governance of corruption and promote government health expenditure,we need to focus on the implementation of the top~level design of national audits and strengthen cooperation between multiple departments to promote collaborative audits.Furthermore,we should also make corresponding policy adjustments based on specific government health expenditure level to avoid the disadvantages caused by local“policy convergence”.