长三角城市群旅游流时空分异与溢出效应研究

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Spillover Effects of Tourism Flows in the Yangtze River Delta City Clusters

为推动长三角城市群区域旅游协同发展,运用空间相关性检验、空间杜宾模型以及空间效应分解等研究方法,探索长三角城市群2010—2018年旅游流的时空分异与溢出效应.结果表明:(1)长三角城市群旅游流有逐年增长的趋势,但各个城市旅游流存在明显的差异性,旅游流的分布呈现“东南高西北低”的局面;(2)长三角城市群旅游流具有空间依赖性,空间集聚状态往往以高—高和低—低组合为主;(3)长三角城市群旅游流存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,旅行社数量、旅游资源禀赋和外商投资都对本地区的旅游流有直接推动作用,但各影响因素的空间交互作用却存在不同的正负性,当邻近地区外商投资增加、区域经济的发展以及旅游基础设施中的星级宾馆数量增加时,会对本地区旅游流产生过道效应和竞争效应;(4)长三角城市群旅游流整体增长的核心积极因素是市场规模,消极因素是区域经济水平发展不平衡.

To promote the development of the Yangtze River Delta city clusters of regional tourism cooperation, spatial analysis, spatial correlation doberman model and spatial effect decomposition were used to explore the spatial-temporal differentiation and spillover effects of tourism flows in the Yangtze River Delta city clusters from 2010 to 2018. The results show that:(1)The tourism flows in the Yangtze River Delta city clusters are increasing year by year, but there are obvious differences in the tourism flows among different cities, and the distribution of tourism flow is “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”.(2)The tourism flows in the Yangtze River Delta city clusters are spatial auto-correlation, and the spatial agglomeration state is usually based on high-high and low-low combinations.(3)The tourism flows of the Yangtze River Delta city clusters have significant positive spatial spillover effects, the number of travel agencies, tourist resources endowment and foreign investment have positive effect on the regional tourist flows, but the factors of spatial interaction exist different influence. When foreign investment, regional economic development and the number of star-rated hotels in neighboring areas increase, it will have aisle and competitive effects on the tourism flow of the region.(4)The market size has become the core positive factors for the growth of tourism flows. However, the unbalanced development of regional economic level will have a negative impact on the overall tourism flow in the Yangtze River Delta.