长江经济带港口能级和城市经济耦合协调研究

Research on the Coupling and Coordination of Port Level and Regional Economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

在“一带一路”倡议与长江经济带战略背景下,探索长江流域港口能级与城市经济之间的耦合协调关系对于长江经济带港口体系建设和港城关系协调发展具有重要意义.选取长江沿线港口与城市2008—2017年的数据,运用位序规模法则、耦合协调度模型、DCI模型和VAR模型,从时间和空间维度探索不同港口城市的港城关系变化及影响因素.研究结果显示:1)2008—2017年间长江经济带沿线各港口能级普遍提升,但发展水平差异悬殊,呈现出由上游向下游递增的趋势;长江经济带港口体系规模扩大,港口分布均衡化发展初现.2)长江经济带沿线港城耦合协调度提升明显,两系统不断向相对协调发展状态转变;但总体耦合协调度水平不高,大部分处于发展不平衡阶段,呈自东部向中西部地区递减特征;港城耦合协调度在港口城市数量结构上分布不均衡,出现断层式分布,港城关系发展不稳定.3)港城关系分为港口驱动型和城市驱动型,城市产业和外贸因素是影响长江经济带港口能级提升和发展的最重要因素,不同港口的影响因素及驱动机制都存在显著差异.最后,提出对长江经济带港城耦合协调度提升的几点建议.

Under the socio-economic background of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt Strategy,there’s a great significance to explore the coupling coordination relationship between the port level and the regional economic system of the Yangtze River.The study is carried out from both time and space dimensions by using city primacy law,coupling coordination degree model,DCI and VAR model.The results showed that the port system of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are generally has been improved but they vary greatly,which shows an increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream.The small and medium-sized port develop faster than big ports.The degree of coupling coordination between ports and cities along the Yangtze River has been improved significantly.The port energy level system has been improved faster than the urban economic system,and the two systems have been changing to a state of relatively coordinated development.In terms of the spatial variation characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of port cities,the overall coupling coordination degree of port cities in the Yangtze River basin is low and most of them are in the stage of unbalanced development.The development of port-city relationship along the Yangtze River is unstable,and the distribution of the scale of port cities with coupling coordination degree is unbalanced and presents a fault-type distribution.In terms of driving factors of port-city interaction,they can be divided into the port-driven type and the city-driven type.The research results shows that industrial factors and foreign trade factors of cities are the most important factors affecting the port development along the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and there are obvious differences in the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of different ports.Finally,several suggestions are put forward to improve the coupling coordination degree of port cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.