我国结构性货币政策的传导效果及其时变差异性

Research on the Transmission Effect and Its Time-varying Difference of China’s Structural Monetary Policy

结构性货币政策是宏观调控的重要手段,为优化贷款结构,实现“精准滴灌”,进而推动经济结构调整,促进经济协调发展,我国先后推出了一系列结构性货币政策工具。为评估我国结构性货币政策对小微企业和“三农”领域贷款的传导效果及其动态演进和时变差异性,基于融资视角,利用时变参数混频向量自回归(TVPMF-VAR)模型进行实证分析。研究发现,我国定向降准、中期借贷便利、抵押补充贷款等结构性货币政策工具可以促进贷款总额、小微企业贷款、涉农贷款的增长,且对贷款总额的促进作用显著高于对小微企业及涉农信贷的促进作用,其传导效应随着结构性货币政策的成熟而有所增强。不过,我国结构性货币政策的“精准滴灌”效应并不充分,还需要考核制度及其他政策的配合协作。为解决小微企业融资难、融资贵等结构性问题,应在“结构性货币政策+完善考核+结构性改革”三轮驱动、长短期结合的政策框架下,更加精准地运用结构性货币政策工具,加强对商业银行的激励;不断完善宏观审慎评估体系,根据政策需要动态调整金融机构服务小微企业等薄弱环节的权重,加强信贷担保和风险评估等政策与结构性货币政策和监管政策的配合;持续推进商业银行体系与信用体系结构性改革,从根源上提升小微企业等主体融资能力。

Structural monetary policy is an important means of macro-control. In order to optimize credit structure,realize the “precise injection”,which will in turn promote economic restructuring and promote economic coordinated development,China has carried out a series of structural monetary policy.By constructing TVP-MF-VAR model,the author empirically studies the transmission effect of China’s structural monetary policy on credit for small and micro enterprises and the field related to agriculture,rural areas and farmers,and the time-varying difference of its dynamic evolution from the perspective of financing.It is found that:such structural momentary policy tools as the targeted cuts in the required reserve ratio,Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF),Pledged Supplementary Lending(PSL) can promote the growth in credit amount,credit for small and micro enterprises,and the agriculture related credit;the promoting effect on credit amount is greater than that on credit for small and micro enterprises and the agriculture related credit;and the transmission effect will be enhanced with the maturity of structural monetary policy. However,the “precise injection” effect of China’s structural monetary policy is not sufficient,which should be accompanied by other policies. In order to solve the structural problems of financing difficulties and high cost in credit for small and micro enterprises,we should,first,in the policy framework of triple driving of “structural monetary policy + perfect evaluation + structural reform” and the combination of long-and short-term policies,use the structural monetary policy tools more precisely,and strengthen incentives for commercial banks;second,we should perfect the macro prudent evaluation system,dynamically adjust the weight of such weak links as financial institutions’ services for small and micro enterprises,and strengthen the coordination between policies such as credit pledge and risk evaluation and structural monetary policy and supervision policy;and third,we should promote structural reform in commercial banking system and credit system,and fundamentally promote small and micro enterprises’ capability for financing.