“一带一路”沿线国家金融风险对中国OFDI的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Financial Risks in the Countries Along the Belt and Road on China’s OFDI

文章基于2006~2019年“一带一路”沿线58个国家的面板数据,通过构建金融风险综合指数并采用空间计量模型,实证检验国家金融风险对中国OFDI的影响机制及空间效应。结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家金融风险对中国OFDI具有显著影响,东道国金融风险抑制中国OFDI流入的同时会将投资挤入邻国。渠道分析发现,公共部门与私人部门信贷活动是金融风险影响中国OFDI的重要因素,其中公共部门债务的中介效应更加显著。异质性分析发现,不同经济发展水平的国家金融风险对中国OFDI的影响效应不同,中高收入、高收入国家的影响机制与空间效应更加显著。

Based on the panel data of 58 countries along the Belt and Road(B&R)from 2006 to 2019,this paper empirically examines the influencing mechanism and spatial effect of national financial risks on China’s OFDI by constructing a comprehensive index of financial risks with spatial econometric model.The results show that financial risks of the countries along B&R have significant influence on China’s OFDI.Financial risks of the host countries will push the investment to the neighboring countries while inhibiting the inflow of China’s OFDI.Channel analysis reveals that credit activities of public and private sectors are the essential factors affecting China’s OFDI,and the mediating effect of public sector debt is more significant.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that financial risks in the countries with different economic development levels exert different effects on China’s OFDI,and the influencing mechanism and spatial effect of the upper-middle-income and high-income countries are more significant.