物理地震危险性分析中的地震动模拟方法研究进展

Overview of research progress on numerical simulation in physics-based seismic hazard analysis

随着计算机计算能力的大幅提升和地震科学方法认知的不断丰富和完善,众多的学者开始用基于物理机理真实断层模型和速度结构模型的地震动数值模拟来评估未来可能发生的破坏性地震的灾害特征。本文初步汇总了地震动数值模拟在地震危险性分析中的研究现状、计算方法和研究实验项目,阐述了地震动数值模拟在物理地震危险性分析及应用中的发展趋势。从抗震设防的角度上来看:基于地震动数值模拟的地震危险性分析将有助于提前做好防震救灾预警。本文综述了地震动数值模拟在物理地震危险性分析中的研究和应用,该方法的不断完善会使其在未来具有巨大的潜力。

With the rapid development of computing ability and the continuous enrichment and improvement of seismic science methods,many scholars begin to use the ground motion simulation based on physics-based real fault model and velocity structure model to evaluate the disaster characteristic of destructive earthquake in the future. This paper summarizes the research status and calculation methods of ground motion simulation in seismic risk analysis. The development trend of ground motion simulation in physics-based seismic risk analysis and application is described. From the perspective of seismic fortification,the seismic risk analysis based on the ground motion simulation will help to do a good job of earthquake prevention and relief early warning in advance. This paper summarizes the research and application of ground motion in seismic risk analysis. The continuous improvement of this method will make it great potential in the future.