西部地区产业结构合理化和高级化对经济增长的影响研究--基于门限效应视角

Study on the Impact of Industrial Rationalization and Advanced in Economic Growth in Western Region Based on the Gating Effect Perspective

如何促进产业结构转型升级为经济增长提供新动力,是新常态下中国经济发展亟需解决的问题。本文从产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化两个维度分析发现,内蒙古和甘肃的产业结构合理化水平偏离均衡状态,但产业结构高级化值却在上升;广西、西藏、陕西、宁夏和新疆等产业结构合理化向均衡优化,但是其产业结构高级化却是向低层次发展。因此,值得深思的是西部地区产业结构高级化水平对经济增长的影响,是否建立在产业结构合理化水平超过某一阈值以上呢?当产业结构合理化水平超过某一阈值时,还有哪些关键影响因素会影响经济增长呢?因此,运用2002-2017年西部地区的面板数据,考察西部地区产业结构升级过程中,是否存在产业结构合理化的门限效应。结果表明:西部地区产业结构高级化对经济增长起反向作用,而产业结构合理化水平是决定两者数量关系的重要门限变量,将产业结构合理化水平值控制在0.327以下,可以降低产业结构高级化对西部地区经济增长的负作用力。根据实证结果,从教育水平、投资、对外开放程度三个方面提出促进西部地区经济健康发展的具体建议。

From the advanced industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization two dimensions analysis found that Inner Mongolia and gansu industrial structure rationalization level from equilibrium state,but the industrial structure advanced value is rising,provoking,the western region of industrial structure advanced level on economic growth,is based on the industrial structure rationalization level on a threshold?In addition,when the level of industrial structure rationalization exceeds a certain threshold,what other key influencing factors will affect the industrial structure optimization?Therefore,the panel data of the western region from 2002 to 2017 is used to investigate whether there is a threshold effect of industrial structure rationalization in the process of industrial structure upgrading in the western region.The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between the advanced industrial structure and economic growth in western China,and the rationalization level of industrial structure is an important threshold variable for determining the quantitative relationship between the two countries.When the level of industrial rationalization structure is greater than the threshold value of 0.327,the upgrading of industrial structure has a greater negative effect on economic growth.According to the empirical results,specific suggestions are put forward to promote the healthy economic development of the western region from the three aspects of education level,investment and the degree of opening up to the outside world.