外汇占款、银行信贷与房地产价格

Foreign Exchange,Bank Credit and Real Estate Prices

外汇占款和银行信贷是我国货币供给的主要渠道,也是影响房地产价格的重要货币因素。本文利用SVAR模型和TVP-VAR模型探析外汇占款、银行信贷和房地产价格的互动关系。结果表明:外汇占款、银行信贷和房地产价格的相互影响作用具有时变特征,并且短期影响作用更显著;银行信贷与房地产价格之间存在正反馈效应,并且房地产价格的信贷弹性不断增强;外汇占款不仅直接影响房地产市场供需均衡,还通过银行信贷渠道间接影响房地产价格;经济发展进入新常态后,银行信贷与外汇占款之间由互补效应转换为替代效应。建议继续推进房地产价格调控,加强货币政策、外汇政策和房地产调控政策的协调,促进房地产市场平稳有序发展。

Foreign exchange and bank credit are the main channels of money supply in China,and they are also important monetary factors affecting real estate prices.This paper uses SVAR model and TVP-VAR model to explore the interactive relationship among foreign exchange,bank credit and real estate price.The results show that the interaction of foreign exchange,bank credit and real estate price has time-varying characteristics,and the short-term impact is more significant;There is a positive feedback effect between bank credit and real estate price,and the credit elasticity of real estate price is increasing;Foreign exchange not only directly affects the balance of supply and demand in the real estate market,but also indirectly affects the real estate price through bank credit channels;After the economic development enters the new normal,the complementary effect between bank credit and foreign exchange is transformed into substitution effect.The paper suggests that we should continue to promote real estate price regulation,strengthen the coordination of monetary policy,foreign exchange policy and real estate regulation policy,so as to promote the steady and orderly development of the real estate market.