新兴经济体货币错配:前沿进展与综述

Currency Mismatch in EMEs:A Literature Review

本文从新兴经济体货币错配的成因、测度、影响和防范方面进行了文献梳理,并跟踪了研究的最新进展。货币错配来源于国际金融市场流动性充裕、发达国家货币的国际主导地位和国内银行、企业的套利交易。大规模的货币错配不仅会冲击实体经济,进而影响货币稳定和金融稳定,还会放大发达国家货币政策调整带来的溢出效应。缓解货币错配问题,新兴经济体应当积累外汇储备、发展本币债券市场、适度进行外汇干预等。

After the 2008 global financial crisis,foreign currency debt in emerging market economies(EMEs)surged and the risk of currency mismatch increased.Many factors such as large amounts of liquidity in international markets and‘carry trade’of banks and firms contributed to currency mismatch.Large-scale currency mismatch will increase the possibility of crisis outbreak,and lead to negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the real economy and reverse of cross-border capital flows.Moreover,currency mismatch plays an important role in the spillover of US monetary policies and investment and financing decisions of enterprises.Apart from better supervision,accumulations of foreign currency reserves,sound systems and developed local currency bond markets can help reduce currency mismatch.It’s important to combine the related researches of global financial cycles with currency mismatch.This paper reviews the causes,effects,measurement and management of currency mismatches and introduces the latest research progress.