岛内“台独”组织的历史发展与趋势分析

An Analysis of the Historical Development and Future of“Independent Organizations”in Taiwan

台湾地区“独”派组织及其活动一直是威胁两岸关系和平发展的主要乱源之一。在主张“台独”的民进党可能长期主政下,厘清岛内“台独”组织及其发展规律,理应成为目前“台独”问题研究的重点。通过组织-环境互动分析框架对其进行分析,可以发现过去三十余年,岛内“台独”组织的发展与宏观政治环境息息相关,特别是台湾地区的政治转型为“台独”组织创造出了一种宽松有利的生存发展环境。同时,“台独”组织具有主观能动的适应性,主要是表现为结构多样化、运作多元化和路线复杂化这三大特点。总结过去经验可以预知,虽然“台独”组织的发展面临着深层次的结构性矛盾,但是未来一段时间之内,“台独”组织仍将有一定的活动空间,因此仍需要密切关注其发展,并警惕其对两岸关系和平发展和祖国统一可能的危害。

For a long time,the"independence"organizations in Taiwan have had a serious negative impact on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.Clarifying the development law of"Taiwan independence"organizations on the island is the top priority of current research.Using the interactive analysis framework of organization-environment to analyze the"independence"organizations in Taiwan,this article finds that the development of the"independence"organizations in Taiwan has been closely related to the macro political environment in the past 30 years,in porticular,the political transformation in Taiwan has created a loose and favorable living and development environment for the“independence”organizations in Taiwan.At the same time,the"independence"organizations in Taiwan have subjective adaptability,which are mainly characterized by the diversification of structure,the diversification of operation and the complexity of routes.Summing up the past experience,it can be predicted that although the development of the“independence”organizations in Taiwan face deep-seated structural contradictions,the"independence"organizations in Taiwan will still have a certain activity space in the future.Therefore,it is still necessary to actively guard against their possible hazards.