侦查讯问的博弈模型构建与优势策略

The Game Models and Strategies in Interrogation

将博弈论的思维和方法引入讯问学研究,有利于优化讯问策略,指导和推动讯问实践。在侦查讯问的博弈中,侦查人员和犯罪嫌疑人依据所掌握的信息和逻辑推理,先后做出决策并付诸实施,最终各自承担结果带来的效用。通过博弈模型分析可以得到:嫌疑人的最优策略是在坦白从宽的政策承诺下及早供述,否则将面临侦查人员持续投入侦查成本产生的不利局面。侦查人员获取口供的博弈对策包括:强化嫌疑人对供述所能带来利益的感知;增大其对于定案概率的估计;善于捕捉和控制嫌疑人即将采取均衡策略的时机等。

Applying game theory to interrogation has great theoretical and practical significance,which broadens the way to get confession.In the interrogation,based on information they have and logical reasoning,the investigators and the suspects successively make their decisions,and finally get their due interests by implementation.Through game models,the author concludes that the best strategy for the suspects is to confess as soon as possible under the commitment of confession and leniency.Otherwise,they will face the adverse situation caused by the continuous investment of investigators.The countermeasures for investigators to obtain confessions include strengthening the suspect's perception of the benefits of confessions;increasing its estimation of the probability of finalization;being good at capturing and controlling the time when the suspect is about to adopt a balanced strategy,etc.