流动人口长期居留意愿的区域差异与影响因素

Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of Mobile Population’s Long-Term Settlement Intention

基于2016—2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,验证了流动人口长期居留意愿的区域差异,并使用空间计量模型分析其影响因素。研究表明,当前人口流动的大趋势不改,长期居留意愿呈现出北方高于南方、东部高于西部的特点,且存在明显的空间集聚分布,华东和东北地区始终是“热点”城市集聚区。从城市包容度、社会融入能力和家庭特征三方面分析长期居留意愿的影响因素:社会融入能力最为重要,其中已婚率、受教育程度、流入地已停留时间存在显著正相关,更高的跨省流动比例则会降低长期居留意愿。城市包容度的重要性有限,但医疗公共服务的正向影响增强,平均工资收入和住房支出两大经济因素亦开始凸显重要性。家庭特征始终是流动人口长期居留决策的一大因素,符合新经济迁移理论。

Based on the 2016—2018 CMDS data,this paper describes and verifies the regional differences in the long-term settlement intention of mobile population,and uses the spatial econometric models( SARAR and SEM) to empirically analyze the influencing factors.The study shows that the current general trend of population mobility remains unchanged,and the long-term settlement intention in the north is higher than that in the south,and in the east than in the west.At the same time,the spatial clustering distribution of the mobile population’s long-term settlement intention is obvious.East China and Northeast China are always the areas where long-term settlement intention “hot spots”cities gather.Finally,factors influencing mobile population’s long-term settlement intention in terms of urban inclusion,social integration ability and family characteristics are analyzed.Social integration ability is the most important.Specifically,mobile population’s marriage rate,their average education level and average time settling in the inflowing cities are significantly positively correlated with their settlement intention.However,a higher proportion of inter-provincial mobility significantly reduces their long-term settlement intention.The importance of urban inclusion is limited,but the positive impact of public health service on long-term settlement intention has increased,and two economic factors of average wage income and housing spending have begun to gain importance.Family characteristics have always been a major factor in the long-term settlement decision of mobile population,which is in line with the new economic migration theory.