中国粮食的真实进口规模与自给率

Size of Grain Net Import and Its Self-Sufficiency Rate in China

中国现行粮食进口量的统计是不完整的。文章区分了粮食显性贸易和粮食隐性贸易,进而构造了粮食真实进口量的测算方法,并基于对粮食隐性进口量的估计,构建了中国粮食贸易平衡表,获得了中国粮食真实进口量及进口结构数据。研究发现:2000—2020年间,中国粮食真实进口规模为153412万吨,其中,粮食显性净进口126463万吨,占82.43%,粮食隐性净进口26949万吨,占17.57%。近年来,中国粮食真实进口规模不断扩大,并呈明显的隐性化趋势。中国粮食进口隐性化,在一定程度上掩盖了国内粮食自给率下降和确保粮食安全之间的矛盾。从口粮看,当前中国人的饭碗仍牢牢端在自己手中,但我国国内粮食市场紧平衡的压力越来越大,亟需切实可行之措施,确保国家粮食安全战略的实施。

The existing statistical measuring of China grain net import is incomplete.This article distinguishes explicit grain trade from implicit grain trade,sets up measuring and calculating methods for real import grain volume and build a balance sheet for China grain trade to get the structured data of the real import grain volume.The research finds that--from 2000 to 2020,the real grain import volume of China totaled 1,534,120,000 tons,among which,explicit grain import 1,264,630,000 tons,82.43%,implicit 269,490,000 tons,15.57%.In recent years,the scale of real net import of various grains has been expanding and shows an obvious implicit conversion.This,to a certain degree,hides the inconsistency between the declining self-sufficiency rate of grain and the aim of ensuring food security.In a perspective of grain rations,the rice bowels of are still firmly controlled in the hands of Chinese people;however,the strain has been increasingly big on the balance of domestic grain market.Practicable measures are urgently needed to ensure the implementation of strategies for national food security.