中美贸易摩擦对中国农产品进口的影响

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Agricultural Imports

使用2017至2019年HS8位码的进口数据,基于双重差分模型研究中国对自美进口农产品加征反制关税的政策效应。研究发现:中国对美进口农产品加征关税显著降低了中国自美农产品进口额,贸易抑制效应显著,但仅存在部分贸易转移效应;政策实施后中国自美农产品进口额下降的部分影响因素来源于美国企业降低农产品对华平均出口价格,政策效果显著,在一定程度证明美国农产品出口对华市场具有较强的依赖性;一般贸易分类下的贸易抑制效应、贸易总效应、贸易转移效应相比不区分贸易方式异质性的全样本估计效果均呈现出一定程度的增强,这意味着中国对美一般贸易分类下的进口农产品实施关税反制的政策影响更强劲。

Taking the HS eight-digit data of Chinese agricultural imports from 2017 to 2019,the policy effect of China’s imposition of counter-tariffs on agricultural products imported from the United States has been empirically studied based on the difference-in-differences( DID) model.The empirical results show that:first,China’s imposition of tariffs on US significantly reduces the amount of China’s agricultural imports from US,and the trade restraint effect is significant,but there is only a partial trade transfer effect.Second,China’s tariff countermeasures against imported agricultural products from US is effective,because American enterprises bear the main tariff costs,and it also proves to a certain extent that U.S.agricultural exports have a strong dependence on the Chinese market.Third,the trade inhibition effect,total trade effect and trade transfer effect under general trade classification all show a certain degree of enhancement compared with the full sample estimation effect that does not distinguish the heterogeneity of trade patterns.This means that China’s policy impact of imposing tariffs on agricultural imports from US under the general trade classification is stronger.