对外直接投资促进了我国劳动收入份额增长吗——基于“一带一路”数据的门槛效应研究

Does OFDI Promote Share of Labor Income Growth in China——An Empirical Study Based on Threshold Model along the Belt and Road

本文基于对外直接投资(OFDI)影响劳动收入份额的理论分析,利用中国2003—2017年对“一带一路”国家投资数据探讨了OFDI与劳动收入份额之间的关系。实证结果表明:两者之间呈倒U型非线性关系,当OFDI强度小于门槛值时,OFDI显著促进了劳动收入份额提高,相反则显著抑制;“一带一路”政策使两者之间倒U型关系更显著。在进一步区分OFDI所属地区和投资动机后,发现我国东中部地区OFDI、对沿线国家市场寻求型OFDI和技术寻求型OFDI与劳动收入份额间的倒U型关系更显著。影响机制检验则表明,OFDI通过正向就业效应和负向技术效应对劳动收入份额产生影响。运用面板门槛模型进一步检验就业效应和技术效应的门槛特征,发现在就业门槛效应的条件下,OFDI与劳动收入份额间呈U型关系;在技术门槛效应的条件下,OFDI对劳动收入份额的影响显著为正,且呈现边际递减的规律。

Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of OFDI on labor income share, this paper discusses the relationship between OFDI and labor income share by using China’s investment data in the Belt and Road countries from 2003 to 2017. The empirical results show that the relationship between OFDI and labor income share is inverted U-shaped nonlinear. When OFDI intensity is less than the threshold value, OFDI significantly promotes the increase of China’s labor income share. On the contrary, OFDI significantly inhibits the increase of labor income share in China. The Belt and Road policy significantly promotes the inverted U-shaped relationship. After further differentiating OFDI regions and OFDI motives, it reveals that the inverted U-shaped relationships between OFDI in the eastern and central regions of China, market OFDI and technology OFDI for countries along the Belt and Road and labor income share are more significant. The impact mechanism test shows that OFDI has an impact on labor income share through positive employment effect and negative technology effect. The panel threshold model is used to further test the threshold characteristics of technology effect and employment effect. It is known that under the employment threshold condition, the relationship between OFDI and labor income share shows U-shaped nonlinear. Under the technology threshold effect, the effect of OFDI on labor income share presents a significant positive and marginal diminishing characteristic.