汇率报价机制市场化促进了中国对外直接投资吗——基于2015年人民币汇率制度改革的反事实检验

Does the Marketization of Exchange Rate Quotation Mechanism Promote Outward Foreign Direct Investment——Counterfactual Test Based on the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate System in2015

本文采用2005—2019年多个国家面板数据,使用合成控制法和中介效应法对2015年汇率报价机制市场化改革的OFDI效应进行了实证研究。研究表明:2015年汇率报价机制市场化改革对中国OFDI有明显的促进作用,这种效应在短期内表现得更为明显;汇率报价机制市场化对OFDI有着显著的影响,这种影响主要是通过汇率水平产生;汇率报价机制市场化改革对高收入国家和非“一带一路”沿线国家的OFDI效应要更高。汇率报价机制的市场化改革仍然是未来的重要方向,市场化的改革对于OFDI有着一定的推动作用,需要重点关注汇率水平的变化以及投资国别问题,坚持“风险中性”理念。

Using the panel data of several countries from 2005 to 2019, this paper made an empirical study on the OFDI effect of the market-oriented reform of exchange rate quotation mechanism in 2015 by using the synthetic control method and mediating effect method. The results show that:(1) the market-oriented reform of exchange rate quotation mechanism in 2015 has an obvious promoting effect on China’s OFDI, and this effect is more obvious in the short term;(2) The marketization of exchange rate quotation mechanism has a significant impact on OFDI, which is mainly produced by the exchange rate level;(3)Impact of market-oriented reform of exchange rate quotation mechanism on high-income countries and the countries which are not of “The Belt and Road Initiative” is higher. The market-oriented reform of exchange rate quotation mechanism is an important direction in the future. The market-oriented reform plays a certain role in promoting OFDI, and it is necessary to focus on the changes of exchange rate level and location choices for countries, and adhere to the concept of “risk neutrality”.