京津冀城市群协调发展的时空分异特征及其影响因素

Research on the Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

从经济发展、城乡统筹、生态环境、要素流动、公共服务五个方面构建协调发展评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定权重,运用局部协调发展模型测算了2004—2018年京津冀城市群13个地级市的协调发展指数。利用σ系数、变异系数、泰尔指数和ArcGIS软件讨论其时空分异演变,并构建双向固定效应模型,实证检验城市群协调发展的影响因素,得出如下结论:城市群各市协调发展差异指数值短期上升长期下降,协调水平缓慢提升,以京津两地为协调发展洼地呈现“盆地”式分布。经济发展和要素流动系统空间分异呈现“盆地”式分布,且协调水平不高,差异有扩大趋势。其余三个系统差异指数均有较大降幅,五个子系统的回归系数均通过显著性检验,城乡统筹和生态环境影响较为显著,且相对稳定,经济发展的重要性日益凸显。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from five aspects:economic development,urban-rural coordination,ecological environment,element flow,and public services.This paper uses the entropy method to determine the weight of each indicator,and uses the partial coordinated development model to measure the coordinated development index of 13 prefecture-level cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2004 to 2018.On this basis,this paper usesσcoefficient,coefficient of variation,Theil index and ArcGIS software to discuss its temporal and spatial differentiation and evolution,and constructs a two-way fixed effect model to empirically test the factors affecting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations.The following conclusions are drawn:The difference level shows a trend of short-term rise and long-term decline,and the coordination level has slowly increased.With Beijing and Tianjin as coordinated development depressions,the distribution of"basins"is shown.The spatial differentiation characteristics of the economic development system and the factor flow system clearly show the distribution of"basins"and the level of coordinated development is not high,and the difference tends to expand the other three system difference indexes have a large decline.The regression coefficients of the five subsystems have all passed the significance test.The impact of urban-rural coordination and the ecological environment is relatively significant and relatively stable,and the importance of the economic development system has become increasingly prominent.