中国与“一带一路”区域的双向贸易成本——基于异质性企业模型的联立成本测算与贸易效应分解

Export and Import Trade Costs between China and OBOR Region——The Simultaneous Cost Calculation and Trade Effect Decomposition Based on Heterogeneous Firm Model

基于异质性企业模型框架下的贸易成本联立测算方法,本文测算了中国与“一带一路”区域的进出口双向贸易成本。该方法改进了Novy方法,利用Chaney引力模型构建了多边阻力项可解析的贸易方程组,可以在结果中区分出口成本和进口成本。研究发现:(1)在1998—2020年间,中国对“一带一路”区域整体进出口成本分别下降了33.57%和19.43%,出口成本下降幅度低于进口成本。(2)中国对各国贸易成本基本呈现先降后增再降的倒“N”形变化趋势,仅有中亚和西亚部分国家的对华贸易成本自2008年以来持续上升。(3)贸易增长分解结果显示,中国经济增长是中国与“一带一路”区域贸易的最大驱动因素,贸易成本下降对该区域贸易增长的贡献有待提升。这些结论对我国未来的区域合作政策选择具有借鉴意义。

The purpose of this paper is to calculate the import and export costs between China and the “One Belt One Road”(OBOR) region by utilising the method of simultaneous calculation.By adopting Chaney’s model and simultaneous trade equations, this article improved the calculation methods formulated by Novy.The calculation results can reflect the differences between import cost and export costs.The results of the calculation show that:(1) During the period from 1998 to 2020, China’s import costs to the OBOR region decreased by 33.57%, and export costs decreased by 19.43%.(2) China’s trade costs with OBOR countries displayed an inverted N-shaped trend(first decreasing, then increasing and then decreasing).The exception to this trend were several Central and Western Asian countries, whose trade costs with China have continued to rise since 2008.(3) The decomposition results of trade growth show that China’s economic growth is the largest driving factor behind the expansion of trade between China and the OBOR region.The overall contribution of the reduction of trade costs to the growth of regional trade in this region needs to be improved.These conclusions pose significant implications for China’s future policy choices for regional cooperation.