突发公共卫生事件中我国地方政府复工复产政策效应研究——基于新冠疫情期间31个省市的QCA分析

Study on Effect of Local Government Policy of Resuming Work and Production in Public Health Emergencies in China:Based on QCA Analysis of 31 Provinces and Cities During COVID-19 Pandemic

[目的/意义]从组态视角出发,研究疫情期间促进经济恢复的核心政策工具与最佳政策组合,可为未来突发公共卫生事件中复工复产政策制定提供参考,为目前仍受疫情严重影响的其他国家提供借鉴。[方法/过程]通过ARIMA模型和6阶7项式对31个省市经济进行预测并测算其经济恢复度(经济韧性),以经济韧性指数作为结果变量,以税收与社保优惠、营商环境优化、推广支持、科研支持、稳企稳岗、数字化扶持、金融支持、人才补助和法律援助服务作为条件变量,对全国31个省市的3185条复工复产政策进行清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),评估疫情期间有效促进复工复产和经济复苏的关键性政策和最佳政策组合。[结果/结论]单独某一类复工复产政策不构成促进经济恢复的必要条件,需与其他政策组合共同促进经济有效恢复;加强对营商环境优化等6类核心政策的使用能有效促进经济恢复;优化的政策组合需与其关系密切的核心或边缘政策配套使用,才能达到高效促进经济恢复的目的;法律援助服务在结果变量为“1”的省市中发挥重要作用,是比较关键的政策,而数字化扶持与科研支持政策的缺失对经济的恢复产生较大的影响,它们在结果变量为“0”的省市中的使用亟待加强。

[Purpose/significance]From the perspective of configuration the study of the core policy tools and the best policy combination for promoting economic recovery during the epidemic period can provide references for the policy formulation of resuming work and production in future public health emergencies and for other countries still seriously affected by the epidemic.[Method/process]The paper predicts the economy of 31 provinces and cities and calculates the resilience index of economic recovery by using ARIMA model and sextic polynomial then takes the resilience index of economic recovery as the result variable with preferential tax and social security business environment optimization and promotion support scientific research support stabilizing enterprises and payroll digital support financial support employee benefits and legal aid service as condition variables to carry out a clear and qualitative comparative analysis(csQCA)of 3185 policies of resumption of work and production in 31 provinces and cities in China and evaluates the key policies and the best policy combination that effectively promoted the resumption of work and production and economic recovery during the epidemic.[Result/conclusion]A separate policy of resuming work and production does not constitute a necessary condition for promoting economic recovery which should be combined with other policy combinations to effectively promote economic recovery together.Strengthening the use of six core policies such as business environment optimization can effectively promote economic recovery.Only when the optimized policy combination is supported with the closely related core or brinkmanship policies can it achieve the purpose of effectively promoting economic recovery.Legal aid service plays an important role in provinces and cities with outcome variable“1”which is a relatively key policy.However the absence of digital support and scientific research support policies has a great impact on economic recovery and their use in provinces and cities with outcome variable“0”urgently needs to be strengthened.