煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险耦合演化路径研究

Research on coupling evolution path of gas explosion risks in coal mines

为揭示煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险在事故发展中的演化过程,首先,分析289起瓦斯爆炸事故调查报告,基于“5W”分析法提取风险因素,并结合解释结构模型,实现风险因素分类与分级;然后,引入Pearson算法,界定风险耦合强度概念,应用SPSS21.0分析风险耦合;最后,依据风险因素间的时序关系和逻辑顺序,构建风险演化路径。结果表明:在以往瓦斯爆炸事故案例中,产生火花与违规放炮耦合强度最大;瓦斯爆炸强耦合风险演化路径有9条,其中最短风险演化路径3条;管控瓦斯探头不足、瓦斯漏检、放炮火焰是预防事故的3个关键措施。

In order to reveal evolution process of gas explosion risks in coal mines during accident development,firstly,risk factors were extracted through 5W analysis method by analyzing 289 gas explosion accident investigation reports,and then,they were classified based on interpretation structure model.Secondly,concept of risk coupling strength was defined by adopting Pearson algorithm,and risk coupling was analyzed by SPSS21.0.Finally,risk evolution paths were constructed according to temporal relationship and logical sequence among risk factors.The results show that the coupling intensity of spark generation and illegal firing is the largest for all the past gas explosion accidents.There are 9 strong coupling risk evolution paths,of which 3 are the shortest ones.The three key measures to prevent accidents are to control gas probe shortage,gas leakage detection and blasting flame.