引入恐慌因素的元胞自动机应急疏散模型

Cellular automata model for emergency evacuation considering panic factor

为明确恐慌情绪对人员疏散进程的影响,采用基于热力学原理的情绪传染模型与元胞自动机疏散模型相结合的方法,模拟疏散人群中的恐慌情绪感染。该模型引入疏散人员的个体差异性和中心扩散的危险环境,通过量化恐慌情绪值并将其融入行人的疏散决策,模拟不同危险环境下人群的疏散过程。结果表明:恐慌情绪主要作用于靠近危险场域的行人,并随着恐慌情绪感染扩大影响范围,导致整体疏散效率下降;与未考虑恐慌模型相比,在较低的初始人群密度下,恐慌情绪会延长疏散时间,但初始人群密度增大到一定程度时,不再延长疏散时间,而会导致更多被困人员;危险场域扩散速度的增加会加速恐慌的传播,致使大规模恐慌人群更早地出现。

In order to clarify influence of panic on evacuation process,contagion of panic emotion in evacuation crowd was simulated by using a method that combined cellular automata evacuation model and emotional contagion model based on thermodynamics.With consideration given to the individual difference of evacuees and dangerous environment,evacuation process of crowd in different environment was simulated by quantifying panic emotion values and integrating them into evacuation decision of pedestrians.The results show that panic emotion mainly affects pedestrians near dangerous area and its influence scope will expand along with its contagion,thus decreasing overall evacuation efficiency.Compared with the model which doesn't consider panic factor,for the proposed model,panic will prolong evacuation time in the case of low initial population density,but when the density increases to a certain extent,evacuation time will no longer be prolonged while more people will be trapped.Increasing diffusion speed of risk areas will speed up spread of panic,causing earlier occurrence of large-scale panic crowd.