流动人口流入地购房意愿及其影响因素研究——基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

Research on the Willingness of Floating Population to Buy Houses and its Influencing Factors——Based on the Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data of the National Floating Population

流动人口是我国推进新型城镇化的重要力量,其流入地购房意愿直接关系到流动人口市民化的路径选择与城镇化的高质量发展。本文基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,利用二值Logit回归模型,研究流动人口流入地购房意愿及其影响因素。研究发现:不同城市规模的流动人口流入地购房意愿有显著差异,一线城市的流动人口购房意愿弱,而二、三线城市流动人口购房意愿更强;住房公积金显著影响流动人口的流入地购房意愿,并且东部地区住房公积金促进购房意愿的作用最为明显;就业身份为雇主和自营劳动者的流动人口的流入地购房意愿更强。此外,受教育程度越高、已婚、流动时间越长、家庭月收入越高、月住房支出越多的流动人口在流入地购房意愿越强。因此,要充分重视城市规模、社会保障等因素对于流动人口流入地购房意愿的异质性影响,因城施策、因群体而异,差别化解决流动人口住房问题。

The floating population is an important force to promote the new urbanization in China. Its willingness to buy a house in the inflow place is directly related to the path choice of the citizenization of the floating population and the high-quality development of urbanization. Based on the national dynamic monitoring survey data of floating population, this paper uses the binary Logit regression model to study the purchase intention of floating population and its influencing factors. It is found that there are significant differences in the purchase intention of the floating population in different cities. The purchase intention of the floating population in the first tier cities is weak, while the purchase intention of the floating population in the second and third tier cities is stronger;Housing provident fund significantly affects the willingness of floating population to purchase houses, and the role of housing provident fund in promoting the willingness of purchase is the most obvious in the eastern region;The floating population whose employment status is employers and self-employed workers have a stronger willingness to buy houses in the inflow place. In addition, the more educated, married, the longer the floating time, the higher the monthly family income and the more monthly housing expenditure, the stronger the floating population’s willingness to buy a house in the inflow place.Therefore, we should pay full attention to the heterogeneous impact of urban scale, social security and other factors on the purchase intention of the floating population, and solve the housing problem of the floating population differently according to urban policies and groups.