不同电价模式对我国风电项目投资收益影响的比较研究——基于电力现货市场的分析

Comparative study on the impact of different electricity price models on the investment income of wind power projects in China——Analysis based on electricity spot market

为有效激励风电投资、提高投资者积极性,针对电力现货市场的深入推进,电价模式是否需要更替已成为一个必要的研究方向。本文首先构建现货市场中固定电价、差价合约及溢价电价三种模式的收益模型和ARMA电价预测模型,结合双参数威布尔模型及实地数据,预测得出年收益值;再采用指标对比分析风电站投资收益情况,并对关键影响因子进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明:在电力现货市场下,合约电价模式有利于调动风电投资商积极性,保障风电投资者利益,进而促进风电行业健康持续发展。基于结论,提出以下建议:2021年起新核准风电项目实行差价合约电价模式,顺应电改需求;参与市场调控,缓解政府压力;规范交易电价,建立有序市场。

With the further development of power spot market, whether a change in the traditional electricity price model is necessary to stimulate the investment in the wind power industry effectively and improve investor’s enthusiasm has become a required research direction. In this paper, first, the income model of three price modes, namely, feed-in tariff, contract for differences(CFD), and premium electricity price in the spot market, and the prediction model of ARMA electricity price were established. Base on the two-parameter Weibull model and field data, the annual returns value is predicted to analyze the investment income of wind power station and analyze the key influence factors. The research results show that: under the spot market of electricity, the CFD mode is conductive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of wind power investors, protecting the interests of wind power investors, and then promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the wind power industry.Base on the conclusion, the following suggestions are put forward: for the newly approved wind power projects from 2021, the CFD mode is implemented to meet the demand of electricity reform;participate in market regulation, relieve government pressure;standardize the transaction electricity price, and establish an orderly market.