我国农村全品类能源需求结构研究——基于河南省农村能源消费数据的分析

Study on the structure of all categories of energy demand in rural China——Analysis based on rural energy consumption data in Henan Province

随着我国农民生活水平的提高,对各类能源的需求量不断增加。同时,农民对能源消费品质也不断提升,由传统的能源供给逐步向清洁、低碳能源供给转型。因此,在乡村振兴与农村能源变革的背景下,亟须探究农村能源需求结构及关键因素的影响。基于随机森林算法,本文选取河南省2000-2020年农村能源消费情况,研究农村地区因素、经济因素、能源获取因素及政策因素对农村能源需求的影响及其重要性排序。研究表明:这些因素的共同作用形成河南省目前农村用能结构,即以煤炭和生物质为主,辅以电力消费的组合方式,并在未来的一段时期内这一组合模式仍将持续。因此,推进农村能源转型势在必行。在供给侧,应加强农村能源多能互补和综合利用;在消费侧,应提高农户清洁用能意识,推进农村能源消费电气化,提高可再生能源在终端能源消费中的占比。

With the improvement of the living standards of farmers in China, the demand for various types of energy has been increasing. At the same time, the quality of farmers’ energy consumption is also improving, and the traditional energy supply is gradually transforming into a clean and low-carbon energy supply. Therefore, in the context of rural revitalization and rural energy transformation, it is urgent to explore the impact of rural energy demand structure and key factors. Based on the random forest algorithm, this paper selects the rural energy consumption in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 and studies the influence of rural area factors, economic factors, energy access factors, and policy factors on rural energy demand and their importance ranking. The study shows that the combination of these factors has formed the current rural energy use structure in Henan Province, i.e., a combination of coal and biomass, supplemented by electricity consumption, and this combination will continue in the future period. Therefore,it is imperative to promote the transformation of rural energy. On the supply side, the multi-energy complementary and comprehensive utilization of rural energy should be strengthened. On the consumption side, we should raise awareness of clean energy use among rural households, promote the electrification of rural energy consumption, and increase the share of renewable energy in terminal energy consumption.