2021—2035年我国普通高中教育资源需求预测及风险预警研究

The Demand Forecasting and Risk Warning for Educational Resources in Chinese Senior High Schools from 2021 to 2035

合理预测学龄人口变动和教育资源需求,建立教育资源配置风险预警体系,对完善教育资源配置、合理制定教育发展规划具有重要意义。在对2021—2035年我国普通高中学龄人口数进行科学预测的基础上,以“公平而有质量”的基础教育为标准,测算了教育资源需求与供给缺口,进而对教育资源配置风险警级进行评估。研究发现:各类教育资源较高程度预警年份集中出现在2028—2034年,特别是2031—2033年;部分教育资源供给缺口较大,主要表现在研究生学历教师、信息化资源和人员经费支出。研究建议持续关注和准确把握职普比等参数变化对普通高中在校生规模和教育资源配置的影响,未雨绸缪,科学精准配置普通高中教育资源,特别是加强教师队伍建设和学校信息化建设,增加教育经费投入。

It is of great significance to reasonably predict the change of school-age population and the demand for educational resources and to establish an early warning system for the risk of educational resource allocation.Based on the scientific prediction for the scale of Chinese regular senior high school students from 2021 to 2035,taking the equal and high-quality education as the target,this paper calculates the following demand and supply gap of educational resources,and assesses risk levels for educational resources allocation.The results show that higher warning years for various types of educational resources are concentrated from 2028 to 2034,especially from 2021 to 2035.Some resources,such as postgraduate teachers,informatization resources and personnel expenditures,are supplied urgently.Policy makers should persistently pay attention to and accurately grasp the effect of the change of policy parameters such as the probability of entering the regular senior high schools compared to vocational senior high schools on the scale of regular senior high school students and the educational resources allocation.The precautions for educational resources allocation should be taken scientifically and accurately,and especially the teaching body,informatization construction and financial inputs should be strengthened.