资产财富和居民消费--来自中国省际面板数据的经验证据

Asset Wealth and Household Consumption:Empirical Evidence from China's Provincial Panel Data

随着“双循环”发展战略的提出,如何提升我国居民消费成为研究热点。与已有研究不同,文章首先从省际视角研究了居民消费行为的影响因素,证实了金融资产和住房资产分别对消费产生的促进作用和抑制作用,且金融资产的促进作用大于住房资产的抑制作用。其次,文章探讨了两种资产对不同种类消费品的影响,金融资产增加主要促进教育娱乐医疗等改善性消费,住房资产增加则主要抑制基本品消费。最后,文章对不同省份居民消费的影响因素进行异质性分析,发现金融资产对消费的促进作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降,而住房资产对消费的抑制作用随收入、资产增加先上升后下降,金融资产和住房资产在东部地区影响小于西部地区,且受区域教育、人口和收入结构影响。综上来看,提升居民收入水平,改善居民收入结构,控制房价过度上涨,改善资本市场在资产分配中的作用,加大政府在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务方面的投入能够有效改善家庭资产结构,提升居民消费水平。

With the establishment of a“dual circulation”development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement,how to improve China's residents consumption has become a research hotspot.Different from the existing studies,this paper first studies the influencing factors of residents consumption behavior from the inter provincial perspective,and confirms that financial assets and housing assets promote and inhibit consumption respectively,and the promoting effect of financial assets is greater than that of housing assets.Secondly,this paper discusses the impact of the two assets on different types of consumer goods.The increase of financial assets mainly promotes the improved consumption of education,entertainment and medical treatment,while the increase of housing assets mainly inhibits the consumption of basic goods.Finally,this paper makes a heterogeneity analysis on the influencing factors of residents consumption in different provinces,and finds that the promoting effect of financial assets on consumption first increases and then decreases with the increase of income and assets,while the inhibitory effect of housing assets on consumption first increases and then decreases with the increase of income and assets.The influence of financial assets and housing assets in the eastern region is less than that in the western region,and is affected by regional education Population and income structure.To sum up,improving the income level of residents,improving the income structure of residents,controlling the excessive rise of house prices,improving the role of capital market in asset distribution,and increasing the government's investment in public services such as education,medical treatment and elderly care can effectively improve the household asset structure and improve the consumption level of residents.