融资成本能评价新型货币政策工具的有效性吗

Can Financing Costs Evaluate the Effectiveness of New Monetary Policy Tools?

提升货币政策效果是近年来我国宏观经济调控改革中的重要任务,而如何正确评价货币政策有效性则是这一任务的前提条件。基于此,结合我国经济新变化,文章在经典的CC-LM模型中纳入了新型货币政策工具,从理论上分析了新型货币政策工具对信贷利率与实际产出的传导机制,并应用具有时变参数的TVP-SV-VAR模型进一步检验了理论分析的结论。理论研究与实证检验一致得出:第一,从对实际产出的影响来看,中期借贷便利为代表的新型货币投放方式是有效的;第二,中期借贷便利仅能降低短期信贷利率,而长期将提升信贷利率;第三,中期借贷便利与LPR报价市场的市场化程度提升可强化货币政策有效性。此外,实证研究还表明,依靠中期借贷便利方式投放基础货币会造成吉布逊谜团的现象,因此能否降低融资成本并不能作为评价货币政策有效性的指标。籍此,文章对如何优化新型货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的政策建议。

Improving the effect of monetary policy is an important task in our country's macroeconomic regulation reform in recent years,and how to correctly evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy is a prerequisite for this task.The existing practical and theoretical circles generally regard financing cost as an important criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy.However,according to the Gibson Paradox,loose monetary policy will increase output and increase the demand for money,which in turn leads to higher interest rates.Therefore,whether the loose monetary policy can reduce the financing cost depends on the strength of the money demand effect and the liquidity effect.If the money demand effect is stronger than the liquidity effect,loose monetary policy will ultimately raise interest rates.Lower interest rates are not a criterion for judging the effectiveness of loose monetary policy.Since 2013,new monetary policy tools have replaced foreign exchange settlement and become the main way of my country's currency distribution.So does this phenomenon also exist in new monetary policy tools?The answer to this question is related to the judgment of the effect of my country's monetary policy and the formulation of future monetary policy.Based on this,combined with the new changes in our country’s economy,this article incorporates new monetary policy tools into the classic CC-LM model,theoretically analyzes the transmission mechanism of new monetary policy tools to credit interest rates and actual output,and applies the TVP-SV-VAR model with time-varying parameters to further test the conclusion of theoretical analysis.Theoretical research and empirical tests have consistently concluded that:first,from the perspective of the impact on actual output,the new currency delivery method represented by the medium-term lending facility is effective.Second,the medium-term lending facility can only reduce short-term credit interest rates,and will increase credit rates in the long run,but it will generally increase credit rates.Third,the marketization of the medium-term lending facility and the LPR quotation market can strengthen the transmission of monetary policy to credit interest rates,but it has not strengthened the transmission effect of monetary policy on actual output.This is mainly due to the low degree of marketization of the quotation market of the medium-term lending facility and the LPR quotation market.In addition,empirical research also shows that releasing the base currency through medium-term lending facilities will cause the Gibson Paradox.This paper further tests the robustness of the results from controlling foreign exchange settlement,changing data processing methods,and increasing sampling times.The results hold under various robustness tests.Therefore,whether the financing cost can be reduced cannot be used as an indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy.Using financing cost as an indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy may lead to wrong policies.Based on this,this paper puts forward constructive policy suggestions on how to optimize the effectiveness of the new monetary policy in terms of the degree of marketization of the quotation market and the improvement of the intermediate objective of monetary policy.