RCEP对全球农产品贸易、生产与福利的影响——基于可计算局部均衡模型的研究

Impacts of RCEP on the Global Agricultural Trade,Production and Welfare:A Research Based on a Computable Partial Equilibrium Model

本文基于Francoins和Hall(2003,2007)等构建的可计算局部均衡模型与2015年全球农产品生产与贸易等数据,从行业层面就RCEP对全球农产品生产、价格、贸易、生产者与消费者福利等方面的影响进行实证分析,得出以下结论:第一,由于成员数量众多,RCEP对部分成员(比如中日、韩日)之间的农产品贸易有贸易创造效应;但是,对已经签署双边FTA的成员之间的农产品贸易有贸易破坏效应;第二,澳大利亚、新西兰和中国等成员的农产品产出与价格均会有所上升,而日本、韩国等成员的农产品产出与价格有所下降,但由于农产品缺乏需求弹性,RCEP对成员与非成员农产品的产出和价格影响有限;第三,从社会净福利指标来看,澳大利亚和新西兰从RCEP中获益最大,东盟和日本的社会净福利有所下降。

Based on the computable partial equilibrium model constructed by Francoins and Hall(2003,2007)and the relevant data of global agricultural production and trade in 2015,this paper simulates the trade and welfare effects of RCEP from the industry level.The main conclusions are as follows:first,because of the large number of member countries,the establishment of RCEP will significantly promote the trade of agricultural products among some members,such as China and Japan,Korea and Japan;However,it has a destructive trade effect on the trade of agricultural products among the member countries that have signed bilateral FTA before.Second,because of the lack of demand elasticity of agricultural products,the impact of RCEP on the output and price of agricultural products of member countries and non-member countries is limited,except Australia and New Zealand.Third,according to the net social welfare indicators,Australia and New Zealand will be the biggest beneficiaries,while ASEAN countries and Japan will suffer welfare losses.