日本量化宽松政策对我国出口的溢出效应研究——基于行业层面数据的分析

Research of the Spillover Effects of Japan's QE Policy on China's Exports--An Analysis Based on the Industry Level Data

本文通过构建SVAR模型,运用2009年1月至2021年6月我国行业层面的对日出口数据,研究发现日本量化宽松政策对我国不同行业出口的影响存在较大差别。首先,日本量化宽松政策显著促进了我国低技术及中低技术行业对日出口的增长;其次,日本量化宽松政策对我国中高技术行业对日出口形成了先正后负的冲击;第三,日本量化宽松政策对我国高技术行业对日出口的促进作用较弱且不显著。此外,方差分解结果表明,日本量化宽松政策对我国化工、交通运输设备等中高技术行业对日出口的波动具有一定解释力。

Based on the SVAR model and the industry level data of China's export to Japan from January 2009 to June 2021,this paper finds that the impact of Japan's QE policy on the export of different industries is quite different.Specifically,Japan's QE policy has significantly promoted the export of low-tech and medium-low-tech industries,Japan's QE policy exerts first positive and then negative impact on the export of the medium-high-tech industries,Japan's QE policy has a weak and insignificant role in promoting the export of high-tech industries.In addition,the results of variance decomposition show that Japan's QE policy can explain the export fluctuation of medium-high-tech industries,such as chemical industry,transportation equipment,and etc.