基于GM(0,3)模型的合肥市房地产价格预测

Real Estate Price Prediction in Hefei Based on GM(0,3)Model

为了研究合肥市未来房地产市场的发展趋势,为政府在房地产业接下来的工作提供依据,以合肥市2016—2020年的商品房年均房价为基础,利用平均弱化缓冲算子对数据进行误差性修正,通过灰色关联法筛选出影响合肥市房价的主要因素,根据主要影响因素建立GM(0,3)模型,对合肥市未来3年的房地产价格进行预测。结果表明,对合肥市商品房价格影响最大的前三个因素为:商品房竣工面积、人均GDP和城镇人口总数;另外合肥市商品房价格预计将在未来3年每年以平均4.06%的增速持续上涨。

In order to study the future development trend of the real estate market in Hefei,the article provides a basis for the government’s next work in the real estate industry.Based on the average annual housing prices of commercial housing in Hefei from 2016 to 2020,we use the average weakening buffer operator to error the data.The main factors that affect Hefei’s housing prices are screened out through the gray correlation method,and finally a GM(0,3)model is established based on the main influencing factors to predict the real estate prices in Hefei in the next three years.The results show that the first three factors that have the greatest impact on the price of commercial housing in Hefei are:the completed area of commercial housing,per capita GDP and the total urban population;in addition,the price of commercial housing in Hefei is expected to continue to increase at an average annual growth rate of 4.06%in the next three years.