国际原油价格波动的影响因素研究

On the Financial Driving Factors of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

选取2002年1月到2020年2月的月度数据,建立SVAR模型并通过脉冲响应函数的方法实证分析了原油供求、原油期货、股票指数和美元汇率对国际原油价格波动的影响。结果表明,自2002年以来原油期货、股票指数和美元汇率这三类金融因素对国际原油价格波动影响较大,引起的原油价格波动更为强烈。最后,对国内应对国际油价剧烈波动提出了三点建议。

This paper selects the monthly data from January 2002 to February 2020,establishes the SVAR model,and empirically analyzes the impact of crude oil supply and demand,crude oil futures,stock index and US dollar exchange rate on international crude oil price fluctuations by using the method of impulse response function.The results show that since 2002,crude oil futures,stock index and US dollar exchange rate have a great impact on the fluctuation of international crude oil price,and the fluctuation of crude oil price is more intense.Finally,three suggestions are put forward to deal with the sharp fluctuations of international oil price.