政府债务扩张与经济长期停滞

Government Debt Expansion and Secular Stagnation

基于188个国家和地区1960—2018年的大型跨国面板数据,考察了政府债务率对经济长期停滞风险的影响及其作用机制,研究发现:政府债务率每提高10个百分点,经济中长期增速下滑0.1个百分点,经济体陷入长期停滞概率提高0.1个百分点;从需求侧看,政府债务扩张通过“凯恩斯效应”抑制投资,并受“李嘉图等价”效应制约而无力启动消费;从供给侧看,政府债务扩张对全要素生产率的促进作用微弱,国别异质性特征明显;从金融侧看,政府债务扩张将明显提高经济体流动性和杠杆率水平,加剧金融不稳定性风险。上述结果表明,政府债务规模应当牢牢控制在稳定经济增长的必要限度之内,避免以牺牲经济增长的长期前景为代价换取短期稳定。

Based on large transnational panel data of 188 countries and regions from 1960 to 2018,this paper examines the impact of government debt ratio on the risk of secular stagnation and its mechanism.The results show that,firstly,for every 10 percentage points increase in the government debt ratio,the medium and long-term economic growth rate will decrease by 0.1 percentage points,and the probability of the economy falling into long-term stagnation will increase by 0.1 percentage points.Secondly,from the demand side,government debt expansion inhibits investment through the“Keynesian effect”,and is restricted by the“Ricardian equivalence”effect,which makes it unable to start consumption.Thirdly,from the perspective of supply side,the promotion effect of government debt expansion on total factor productivity is weak,and the characteristics of national heterogeneity are obvious.Fourthly,from the financial side,the expansion of government debt will significantly increase the level of economic liquidity and leverage,and increase the risk of financial instability.The above results indicate that the scale of government debt should be firmly controlled within the necessary limit to stabilize economic growth and avoid sacrificing the long-term prospects of economic growth for short-term stability.