我国地区隐性债务的测度与“前因后果”——基于MIMIC模型的研究

Evaluation,Determinants and Effects of Implicit Local Government Debts in China’s Provinces——Based on the MIMIC Model Approach

全国隐性债务总量从2006年的19.44万亿元上升到2019年的39.64万亿元,隐性债务存量问题严峻。本文通过构建能有效解决隐性债务隐蔽性强和不确定性等难题的多指标、多原因(MIMIC)模型,对地区隐性债务的决定因素和影响效应进行分析比较,测算了2006—2019年间各省份地方政府隐性债务的具体规模。研究发现,政府的竞争、担保行为以及地区经济发展、国家扶持政策是导致地方政府隐性债务扩张的主要原因。同时,地方政府隐性债务的增长会提高商业银行的不良贷款率,挤出地区民间投资。因此,根据隐性债务的决定因素提出相应控制隐性债务规模的三条政策建议。

The total implicit debts of all province in China has risen from 19.44 trillion yuan in 2006 to 39.64 trillion yuan in 2019,and the problem of implicit debts’stock is still serious.By constructing a multiple indicators and multiple cause(MIMIC)model that can effectively solve the problems of high concealment and high uncertainty of implicit debts,the determinants and effects of provincial implicit debts are analyzed and compared,and the provincial implicit debts from 2006 to 2019 are estimated.The study found that government competition,guarantee behavior,regional economic development,and national support policies are the main reasons for the expansion of implicit local government debts.At the same time,the growth of implicit local government debts will increase the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and crowd out private investment.Therefore,according to the determinants of implicit debts,three corresponding policy suggestions for controlling the scale of implicit debts are put forward.