数字山洪防治理论框架和实施路径初探

The theoretical framework for digitalized mountain flood control and its implementation path

数字化、智能化迭代升级是山洪灾害防治发展到新阶段的必由之路。数字山洪防治是智慧水利之水旱灾害防御应用的主要组成部分。数字山洪防治在已有算据、算法、算力基础上,充分运用数字化技术、思维、认知,以国家级、省级监测预警平台为载体,以科学识别研判风险隐患、提高预警精准度、延长预见期、快速准确指导人员避险为目标,以小流域为单元,以山洪灾害下垫面和时空大数据为基础构建数据底板,以数字化场景、智慧化模拟、靶向化预警、精准化防控为路径,力求在多源降水数据融合、超大规模小流域洪水并行计算、实时和预设情景下风险评估、基于位置的流动人员靶向预警等方面取得突破,实现山洪灾害预报、预警、预演、预案“四预”功能。

Digital and intelligent iterative upgrading shall be the only way for the prevention and control of mountain flood disasters in the new stage. Digitalized mountain flood control is the main part of flood and drought disaster prevention in smart water. Based on the existing calculation data, algorithms and computing power, it makes full use of digital technology, thinking and cognition, takes the national and provincial monitoring and early warning platforms as the carrier, aiming to scientifically identify and judge potential risks, improve the accuracy of early warning, prolong the forecast period, quickly and accurately guide personnel to avoid risks. It takes small watersheds as units, builds a database on the basis of the underlying surface of mountain torrent disaster and spatial-temporal big data, and takes digital scenes, intelligent simulation, targeted early warning and accurate prevention and control as the path. The purpose is to make a breakthrough in multi-source precipitation data fusion, parallel calculation of large and small watershed floods, risk assessment under real-time and preset scenarios, location-based targeted early warning of mobile personnel, and realize the functions of forecasting, early-warning, pre-planning and exercise(four-pre).