基于DPSIR模型的京津冀耕地利用转型及驱动因素研究

Study on the transformation and driving factors of cultivated land use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on DPSIR model

运用土地利用转移矩阵、DPSIR模型与空间计量模型,分析京津冀耕地转型的时空变化及驱动机理.结果表明,2005—2018年,京津冀耕地转换为建设用地、林草地的比重最大,分别为67.16%和23.14%;在空间分布上,冀中平原区主要存在耕地与建设用地间的转换,冀东北、冀西太行山区主要存在耕地与林草地间的转换,坝上地区主要存在耕地与林草地及未利用地间的转换;京津冀耕地转型主要受城市经济、人口社会、农业发展等区域性因素及以坡度为主的空间性因素驱动.京津冀的耕地转型是人类活动、经济发展、地形地势等多重因素共同驱动下的结果,应加强耕地数量-质量-生态“三位一体”的管护,强化空间规划实施监督,引导土地覆被变化朝预期方向发展.

Land use transfer matrix,DPSIR model and spatial econometric model are used to analyze the spatiotemporal change and driving mechanism of cultivated land transition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results showed that,from 2005 to 2018,the proportion of cultivated land converted to construction land,forest and grassland land was the largest in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,which is 67.16%and 23.14%,respectively.In terms of spatial distribution,there are mainly conversions between cultivated land and construction land in central Hebei plain,between cultivated land and forest-grass land in northeastern Hebei and western Hebei Taihang Mountains,and between cultivated land and forest-grass land and other land in Bashang Region.The transformation of cultivated land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly driven by regional factors such as urban economy,population and society,and agricultural development,as well as spatial factors dominated by slope.The transformation of cultivated land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is driven by human activities,economic development,topography and other factors.It is necessary to strengthen the management of cultivated land quantity,quality and ecology,strengthen the supervision of the implementation of spatial planning,and guide the development of land cover change in the expected direction.