基于耦合协调模型的新疆人口城镇化与土地城镇化关系研究

Research on the relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in Xinjiang based on the coupling coordination model

综合运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析法,构建人口城镇化与土地城镇化评价指标体系,对2008—2018年新疆人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调关系进行时空演变与空间分异集聚程度的研究.结果表明,新疆人口城镇化发展水平与土地城镇化发展水平呈现波动上升的趋势,但是两者发展水平总体偏低;新疆人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调水平在不断提高,已由2008年的高度不协调类发展到2018年的中级协调类,并且耦合协调水平呈现出北疆高于南疆的地域性特征;2008,2013,2018年的全局Moran指数I均为正,说明整个地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展水平具有全局空间正相关关系,耦合协调度水平接近的地区空间集聚现象明显,耦合协调度空间分布呈现空间集聚态势.

Using entropy weight method,coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatial data analysis method,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of population urbanization and land urbanization,and studies the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial differentiation agglomeration degree of the coupling coordination relationship between population urbanization and land urbanization in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2018.The results show that the development level of population urbanization and land urbanization in Xinjiang presents a fluctuating rising trend,but the development level of both is generally low;the coupling coordination level of population urbanization and land urbanization in Xinjiang is constantly improving,which has developed from the highly uncoordinated type in 2008 to the intermediate coordination type in 2018,and the coupling coordination level of Northern Xinjiang is higher than that of Southern Xinjiang;Moran's I values in 2008,2013 and 2018 are all positive,which indicates that the coordinated development level of population urbanization and land urbanization in the whole region has a global spatial positive correlation.The spatial agglomeration phenomenon is obvious in regions with similar coupling coordination degree,and the spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree presents a spatial agglomeration trend.