中国县域农业全要素生产率增长的地区差异及动态演进

Regional Difference and Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth at County Level in China

基于2000-2017年中国大陆1173个县域的面板数据,采用序列DEA方法对县域农业TFP增长进行测度,并使用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计系统考察县域农业TFP增长的地区差异及其动态演进。研究表明:县域农业TFP年均增长3.02%,并表现出明显的地区不平衡性和阶段性波动特征;县域农业TFP增长的地区差异呈现扩大趋势,超变密度对县域农业TFP增长的地区差异贡献最高,而地区内部差异和地区间差异的贡献相对较低;全国地区县域农业TFP增长表现为“双峰”分布,地区差异呈扩大态势;东部地区县域农业TFP增长由“双峰”向“单峰”转变,而中部和西部地区均表现为“双峰”分布。由此,建议通过促成前沿技术进步和改善技术效率的“双驱动”模式、促进县域间农业要素资源的合理流动、加强财政支农力度等措施促进县域农业TFP增长。

Based on the panel data of 1173 counties in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2017,this paper estimates the agricultural TFP growth of counties in China by using sequential DEA method,and adopts Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density methods to investigate regional difference in county agricultural TFP growth and its dynamic evolution. The results show that county agricultural TFP grew at an average annual rate of 3.02% and exhibited significant regional unevenness and phase fluctuations.The regional difference in agricultural TFP growth of counties in China have increased gradually,with the highest contribution of hypervariable density to regional differences in county agricultural TFP growth, and relatively low contributions from intra-regional differences and inter-regional differences.The regional gap of agricultural TFP growth continues to widen,which is mainly presented as the“bimodal distribution”. The regional disparity of agricultural TFP growth in the Eastern region is changing from the“bimodal distribution”to the“unimodal distribution”,while the gap of agricultural TFP growth in the Central and Western region shows the“bimodal distribution”.Therefore,it is proposed to promote the county agricultural TFP growth by making frontier technological progress and improving the“dual drive”model of technical efficiency,promoting the flow of agricultural factor resources between counties, and strengthening financial support for agriculture.