2011—2020年我国城市居民主要疾病死亡率的时间演变趋势及其影响因素

Research on the time evolution trend and influencing factors of the mortality of major diseases of urban residents in China in 2011-2020

目的 探究城市居民主要疾病死亡率的发展趋势及影响因素,构建心脏病死亡率预测模型。方法 采用单因素方法分析、相关性分析等分析疾病死亡率不同类别之间的差异的显著性以及与影响因素之间的相关性。通过指数函数拟合各阶段老年人口占比与心脏病死亡率之间的关系并通过逐步回归方程构建心脏病死亡率预测模型。结果 心脏病与脑血管病死亡率呈现出不断上升趋势。四大疾病在男性中的发病率要显著高于女性(F=7.60,P<0.05)。城市居民恶性肿瘤的死亡率与固体废弃物的排放具有相关性(r=0.833,P<0.05),各阶段老年人口占比几乎均与心脏病死亡率具有高度的相关性(r>0.80,P<0.01),但仅80~岁老年人口占比与脑血管病死亡率具有相关性(r>0.60,P<0.05)。将各阶段老年人口比重纳入逐步回归分析构建心脏病死亡率预测模型具有极高的精确度(R;>0.98,P<0.01)。结论 根据调查结果对主要疾病的影响因素及高发人群进行有重点防治,例如对60~岁老年人开展心脏病防治工作而对80~岁老年人开展脑血管病防治工作。

Objective To explore the development trend and influencing factors of major diseases of urban residents, and to construct a prediction model of heart disease mortality. Methods One-way analysis of variance(Duncan′s test at a=0.05) and correlation analysis were used to analyze the significant differences between the different categories of disease mortality and the correlation with the influencing factors.The exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the proportion of the elderly population and the death rate of heart disease at various stages, and the prediction model of heart disease mortality was constructed through the stepwise regression equation. Results The mortality rate of heart disease and cerebrovascular disease showed a rising trend.The incidence of the four major diseases in men was significantly higher than that in women(F=7.60,P<0.05).The mortality of urban residents from malignant tumors was correlated with the discharge of solid waste(r=0.833,P<0.05).The proportion of the elderly population at each stage was highly correlated most with the death rate of heart disease(r>0.80,P<0.01),except for the elderly population of 80+ years old, which was correlated with the mortality of cerebrovascular disease(r>0.60,P<0.05).Incorporating the proportions of the elderly at each stage into the stepwise regression analysis to construct a heart disease mortality prediction model obtained extremely high accuracy(R;>0.98,P<0.01). Conclusion According to the results of the survey, the influencing factors of major diseases and the high-risk population should be focused on prevention and treatment.It is recommended that the prevention and treatment of heart disease is carried out for the aged 60+ and the prevention and treatment of cerebrovascular diseases is carried out for the aged 80.