1980—2020年上海市金山区慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡水平及早死概率趋势分析

Trend analysis of the death level and probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Jinshan District,Shanghai,1980-2020

目的 了解1980—2020年上海市金山区慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡水平及其所致早死概率的变化趋势,为制订相应防控措施提供参考依据。方法 通过死亡登记报告信息系统收集41年来金山区慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡个案,计算粗死亡率,标化死亡率、年龄组死亡率、早死概率及年度变化百分比等指标。结果 1980—2020年,金山区慢性阻塞性肺疾病粗死亡率为154.38/10万,标化死亡率为82.66/10万。41年间,男性和女性慢性阻塞性肺疾病标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(APC=-1.79%、-2.52%,P<0.001)。同期,30~69岁和70岁及以上年龄组慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率随时间推移均呈下降趋势(APC=-8.79%、-4.79%,P<0.001)。41年间,男性和女性慢性阻塞性肺疾病所致早死概率均呈下降趋势(APC=-9.61%、-10.71%,P<0.001)。结论 41年间,金山区慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率和早死概率均呈下降趋势,但慢性阻塞性肺疾病仍是对金山区居民健康造成严重威胁的慢性病之一,宜采取综合性防治措施来降低慢性阻塞性肺疾病的死亡率和早死概率。

Objective To analyze the trend of death level and theprobability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD) in Jinshan District of Shanghai from 1980 to 2020,and to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures of COPD. Methods The death cases of COPD in Jinshan District from 1980 to 2020 were collected through the death cause registration information system.The crude mortality, standardized mortality, age group mortality, early death probability and annual change percentage in different periods were calculated. Results From 1980 to 2020,the crude mortality of COPD in Jinshan District was 154.38/100 000,and the standardized mortality was 82.66/100 000.In the past 41 years, the standardized mortality of COPD showed a downward trend in males and females(APC=-1.79%,-2.52%,P<0.001).In the same period, the mortality of COPD in subjects aged 30-69 years oldand subjects aged 70 years old and above also decreased(APC=-8.79%,-4.79%,P<0.001),and the probability of premature death caused by COPD showed a downward trend in males and females(APC=-9.61%,-10.71%,P<0.001). Conclusion The mortality rate and the probability of premature death of COPD in Jinshan District have decreased in the past 41 years.However, COPD is still one of the major chronic diseases that pose a serious threat to the health of residents in Jinshan District.Comprehensive prevention and treatment measures should be taken to reduce the mortality and the probability of premature death of COPD.