国际多式联运收益分配博弈模型及Raiffa解优化

Revenue Distribution Game Model for International Multimodal Transport and Raiffa Solution Optimization

收益分配的公平合理性是影响国际多式联运联盟成员积极性、联盟稳定性的重要因素。为探究国际多式联运物流联盟合理的收益分配策略,构建联盟成员在独立经营、两两结盟、三方联盟策略下的收益函数。首先,利用Raiffa解对联盟总收益进行初始分配;其次,以对相关多式联运示范工程及参与企业的实证调查为基础,综合分析确定了专属成本投入、运输资源持有量、合作风险、配合度与联盟地位5个影响联盟收益的特质因素;最后,综合应用变异系数法和层次分析方法确定权重系数进行Raiffa解优化。案例研究表明,三方联盟策略可以实现成员收益的帕累托改进,联盟地位和运输资源持有量是影响收益分配的关键因素,基于特质因素的Raiffa解优化方法具有有效性。

The fairness and rationality of revenue distribution is an important factor affecting the enthusiasm of members of the international multimodal transport alliance and the stability of the alliance.To find a reasonable revenue distribution strategy for the international multimodal transport logistics alliance,we constructed the functions of alliance members’revenues under three strategies of independent operation,pairwise alliance,and tripartite alliance.The Raiffa solution was used to make an initial distribution of the total revenue of the alliance.After a demonstration project of multimodal transport and relative participating enterprises were investigated empirically,five idiosyncratic factors infuencing alliance revenue were identified,including exclusive cost investment,transport resource holdings,cooperation risk,coordination degree,and alliance status.Finally,the coefficient of variation method and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method were adopted to calculate the weight coefficients and optimize the Raiffa solution.The case study shows that the tripartite alliance strategy allows for Pareto improvement of members’revenues,alliance status and transport resource holdings are the key factors affecting revenue distribution,and the Raiffa solution optimization method based on idiosyncratic factors is effective.